March 25, 2025 – Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

In a significant step towards a possible end to the war between Russia and Ukraine, Ukraine and Russia have agreed to cease military operations in the Black Sea and halt attacks on energy facilities. The United States verified Tuesday that the two nations had reached a ceasefire agreement following several days of indirect negotiations in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

Zelenskyy Deems Agreement “The Right Steps”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy greeted the agreement as a positive development, calling it “the right steps” toward peace. He further stated that the agreement would take effect immediately from Ukraine’s perspective, although Moscow averred that it would only comply with the agreement after certain sanctions were lifted. These include sanctions against Rosselkhozbank, a Russian state-owned agricultural bank, which Moscow claims are inhibiting its international trade activities.

Ukraine and Russia have Reached Black See CeaseFire Agreement, US Reports — Houses Destroyed by Russian Drone Attack in Ukraine

Zelenskyy suggested that an outsider from Europe, Turkey, or the Middle East might serve as a third-party monitor to oversee the ceasefire and energy infrastructure moratorium. “If Russia violates this agreement, we will ask the US for greater support, including sanctions and arms,” Zelenskyy said.

Russia’s Putin and the US have Agreed to End Ukraine War

Moscow Demands Guarantees Before Full Compliance

The Kremlin has, however, maintained that it will not fully implement the ceasefire until Western sanctions, particularly those on Russian banks, are lifted. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov expressed skepticism, maintaining that Moscow needed “clear guarantees” from Ukraine, something that could only be addressed through direct intervention by Washington.

Lavrov also added that Russia’s distrust of Ukraine’s adherence to agreements was derived from “the sad experience” of past unsuccessful negotiations. He emphasized that the Russian government wanted assurances from Washington before proceeding.

Riyadh Talks and Challenges

The cease-fire announcement follows a series of negotiations that have taken place in Riyadh, where US negotiators met separately with Russian and Ukrainian representatives. The White House confirmed that the two sides agreed to “ensure safe navigation” in the Black Sea, to cease the use of force in maritime affairs, and to prohibit military uses of commercial ships.

But the implementation schedule remains unclear. Others have wondered about the impact of the pact, since Russia has not dominated the Black Sea since the 2022 start of the invasion. The Ukrainian Navy has recorded widespread destruction of Russian warships in the region, with a minimum of 27 of Russia’s 80 Black Sea warships destroyed or damaged since the invasion started.

Energy Infrastructure and More Focused Ceasefire Focus

Although the broader 30-day ceasefire initially proposed by the US included all energy infrastructure attacks, this week’s deal puts its focus more narrowly on avoiding energy facility attacks in Russia and Ukraine. The two sides have been blaming each other for energy facility attacks in recent days, so implementing a full ceasefire is difficult.

Russia’s Putin and the US have Agreed to End Ukraine War

The White House further pledged to support Ukraine with the release of prisoners of war and the repatriation of forcibly transferred Ukrainian children. At the same time, the US also promised to make Russia’s access to global agricultural and fertilizer markets available, which was Moscow’s number one priority, having withdrawn from the Black Sea Grain Initiative in 2023 due to outstanding demands.

The Future of the Black Sea Grain Initiative

Another key topic of the negotiations was discussions on the return of the Black Sea Grain Initiative that had previously allowed Ukraine to export grain to hunger-stricken countries. Moscow put the agreement on hold in 2023, accusing the West of failing to lift sanctions on its farm exports.

The US indicated that it would strive to revive Russia’s access to global markets for farm products, lower sea insurance rates, and improve port access. Russian officials, however, are seeking guarantees before they return to any new deals.

As GistNexus Continues to Analyze the Diverging Interpretations of the Ceasefire Terms

According to GistNexus War Analyst, While both sides are negotiating the terms of the ceasefire, there is also apprehension of differing interpretations of what constitutes a full cessation of hostilities. While the White House has asserted that the ceasefire must entail a broad ban on attacks on energy as well as infrastructure, Russia’s team argues that the agreement only concerns energy infrastructure.

While Moscow and Kyiv both struggle on to gain possession of valuable territories, such as significant energy holdings, the future of this ceasefire hangs in the balance. Whether or not this treaty is the beginning of a larger peace process, or merely a new temporary lull in the larger war, remains to be seen.

Russia’s Putin and the US have Agreed to End Ukraine War